Major Flare Watch Evaluation: Difference between revisions
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== Introduction == | == Introduction == | ||
Flares that produce gamma-ray lines are the highest priority target of the RHESSI Mission. Multi-wavelength imaging and spectroscopic observations before, during and after such flares are crucial to their interpretation. To optimize such observations, the Max Millennium Chief Observers (MM_COs) | Flares that produce gamma-ray lines are the highest priority target of the RHESSI Mission. Multi-wavelength imaging and spectroscopic observations from other spacecraft and ground-based observatories before, during and after such flares are crucial to their interpretation. To optimize such observations, the Max Millennium Chief Observers (MM_COs) | ||
[http://solar.physics.montana.edu/max_millennium/mm_co.shtml] | [http://solar.physics.montana.edu/max_millennium/mm_co.shtml] | ||
announce a Major Flare Watch when the probability of gamma-ray-producing flares is high. Such announcements [http://solar.physics.montana.edu/hypermail/mmmotd/3787.html] appear in the Max Millennium Messages of the Day | announce a Major Flare Watch when the probability of gamma-ray-producing flares is high. Such announcements [http://solar.physics.montana.edu/hypermail/mmmotd/3787.html] appear in the Max Millennium Messages of the Day | ||
[http://solar.physics.montana.edu/hypermail/mmmotd/index.html], distributed to over 200 solar observers and mission planners through the self-subscribing MMmmotd mailing list and archive | [http://solar.physics.montana.edu/hypermail/mmmotd/index.html], distributed to over 200 solar observers and mission planners through the self-subscribing MMmmotd mailing list and archive | ||
[http://solar.physics.montana.edu/max_millennium/mmlists.shtml]. | [http://solar.physics.montana.edu/max_millennium/mmlists.shtml]. | ||
''How well has this system worked?'' That's the subject of this Nugget. | |||
== Major Flare Watch Criteria == | |||
Throughout the RHESSI mission, the MM_COs have used a set of Major Flare Watch criteria | Throughout the RHESSI mission, the MM_COs have used a set of Major Flare Watch criteria | ||
that are an outgrowth of the classic "BEARALERTS - A Successful Flare Prediction System" [http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1991SoPh..131..149Z] paper by Zirin and Marquette (1991): | |||
A | * A major flare has occured (if a region produced one big flare, it will probably produce at least one more) | ||
* Large island delta - opposite polarity umbrae within 2 heliographic degrees within a common penumbra (delta configuration) and, in addition, the delta surrounded by opposite polarity flux - even better if the region is reversed polarity. Bright H-alpha will be present. | |||
* Large delta configuration with bright H-alpha plage and better still if reversed polarity. Bright H-alpha along the neutral line is needed. | |||
* Elongated umbrae in pairs of opposite polarity even if the umbrae are not a delta configuration. Transverse magnetograms will reveal strong shear. | |||
* Emerging Flux Region within an existing active region, if the leader spots of the EFR are adjacent to the existing region's trailing spots or vice-versa. | |||
* Rapidly moving sunspots - sunspot(s) moving towards and/or into an opposite polarity spot. | |||
Revision as of 17:52, 9 November 2010
Introduction
Flares that produce gamma-ray lines are the highest priority target of the RHESSI Mission. Multi-wavelength imaging and spectroscopic observations from other spacecraft and ground-based observatories before, during and after such flares are crucial to their interpretation. To optimize such observations, the Max Millennium Chief Observers (MM_COs) [1] announce a Major Flare Watch when the probability of gamma-ray-producing flares is high. Such announcements [2] appear in the Max Millennium Messages of the Day [3], distributed to over 200 solar observers and mission planners through the self-subscribing MMmmotd mailing list and archive [4]. How well has this system worked? That's the subject of this Nugget.
Major Flare Watch Criteria
Throughout the RHESSI mission, the MM_COs have used a set of Major Flare Watch criteria that are an outgrowth of the classic "BEARALERTS - A Successful Flare Prediction System" [5] paper by Zirin and Marquette (1991):
- A major flare has occured (if a region produced one big flare, it will probably produce at least one more)
- Large island delta - opposite polarity umbrae within 2 heliographic degrees within a common penumbra (delta configuration) and, in addition, the delta surrounded by opposite polarity flux - even better if the region is reversed polarity. Bright H-alpha will be present.
- Large delta configuration with bright H-alpha plage and better still if reversed polarity. Bright H-alpha along the neutral line is needed.
- Elongated umbrae in pairs of opposite polarity even if the umbrae are not a delta configuration. Transverse magnetograms will reveal strong shear.
- Emerging Flux Region within an existing active region, if the leader spots of the EFR are adjacent to the existing region's trailing spots or vice-versa.
- Rapidly moving sunspots - sunspot(s) moving towards and/or into an opposite polarity spot.